NFL Talkboard: week 17 - The Guardian (blog)

Welcome to week 17 on the NFL Talkboard. It's now or never for those of you still within touching distance at the top of our Pick Six leaderboard, but if you're already out of the running then fear not: we will have a brand new Pick The Playoffs game commencing next week.

Until then, let us all congratulate Snowyfish and TheBoyWonders on picking all six games correctly this week. As ever, I will post the overall standings below the line, but I can tell you now that term1011 has sole possession of first place going into the final weekend.

This Sunday's live blog is Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (8.20pm ET/1.20am GMT), so here's hoping you'll join us for that. And be sure to check back in again on Monday for our Five things we learned blog, looking back over the weekend's games.

Before we get into this week's games, here's a quick look at the playoff picture as it stands:

AFC

As it stands: 1. Houston Texans (12-3) 2. Denver Broncos (12-3) 3. New England Patriots (11-4) 4. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) 5. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) 6. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
On the cusp: N/A

There is just seeding left to play for in the AFC, with the identity of all six playoff teams now confirmed. If Houston lose to Indianapolis this weekend, then both Denver and New England would have the opportunity to leapfrog them - securing homefield advantage through the playoffs and a first-round bye respectively. Click here for a full breakdown of all the possible scenarios in the AFC.

NFC

As it stands: 1. Atlanta Falcons (13-2), 2. Green Bay Packers (11-5), 3. San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1), 4. Washington Redskins (9-6), 5. Seattle Seahawks (10-5), 6. Minnesota Vikings (9-6)
On the cusp: Chicago Bears (9-6), Dallas Cowboys (8-7), New York Giants (8-7)

Each of Chicago and New York need to win (well, technically the Bears could tie) and get help from elsewhere. In the Bears' case, a Minnesota loss would suffice, but the Giants also require defeats for both of Dallas and Chicago. The Cowboys, on the other hand, simply need to beat Washington in Sunday's late game. The winner of that game will also be confirmed as NFC East champion. Click here for a full breakdown of all the possible scenarios in the NFC.

So that's that. And now, without further ado ...

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

At one stage it looked as though this would be a head-to-head decider for the AFC North title. The Bengals opened up that possibility by beating another division rival, Pittsburgh, last week, but Baltimore shut it down by ending their three-game losing streak with a rout of the New York Giants. Cincinnati are now locked into the AFC's sixth seed, while the Ravens could move up from fourth to third with a win and a New England loss. The Ravens racked up 430 yards of offense when these two met in week one, but Cincinnati have been a different team lately – surrendering a league-best average of just 264.3 yards per game over the last six. Expect this one to be low-scoring and ferociously fought. I think Baltimore will squeak it.

Ravens to win

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Last week the Jets named Tim Tebow alongside Mark Sanchez as their joint-No2 quarterback, behind 2011 seventh-round pick Greg McElroy. But when McElroy admitted to trainers that he was experiencing concussion symptoms this week, it was no surprise to see Tebow overlooked once again. Not that Sanchez will necessarily be relishing another chance behind an offensive line that gave up 11 sacks last week. Buffalo are bad, and have lost eight of their last nine against the Jets. But they're at home, and they can run the ball. In a low-quality match-up, that feels like enough.

Bills to win

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Edging further down the spectrum of unappealing games, here's one between two teams that have combined for just seven wins this season. The optimists in Jacksonville will note that they played hard against New England last week, building a 10-0 first-quarter lead before eventually losing 23-16. They were certainly a lot more competitive than the Titans, who got blown out 55-7 by Green Bay. The Jaguars, though, will be missing their top wide receiver, Cecil Shorts, and are a mess at running back with Rashard Jennings out and Maurice Jones-Drew unlikely to return from the foot injury which has held him out for most of the year. Once more, I'll side with the home team.

Titans to win

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Expect an emotional afternoon in Indianapolis, as Colts head coach Chuck Pagano returns to the sideline for the first time since being diagnosed with leukemia in September. His team – who have tied up the fifth seed in the AFC – have nothing to gain by winning on Sunday, but their opponents have everything to lose. Houston hold the conference's top seed but could slide all the way down to third should they slip while both Denver and New England win. That would mean giving up not only home-field advantage but also a first-round bye. It is hardly an unthinkable outcome – with the Texans well beaten by both New England and Minnesota in the last three weeks. But having Arian Foster back will be a major boost.

Texans to win

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)

Adrian Peterson requires another 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, but he is focused on more than just individual milestones this Sunday. The Vikings can guarantee their wildcard spot with a victory (significant help from elsewhere would be required should they lose), but that is no small order. Green Bay themselves require a victory to secure the second seed in the NFC and are riding a four-game winning streak that began with a 23-14 victory over the Vikings in Green Bay. The Packers have also won five straight against Minnesota.

Packers to win

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (Sunday 8.30pm ET/Monday 1.30am GMT)

It's all-or-nothing time in the NFC East. The winner of this game takes the division, the loser most likely packs up for the year (though Washington could theoretically still sneak in as a wildcard team if both Minnesota and Chicago have lost earlier in the day). The Cowboys have not forgotten what Robert Griffin III did to them back in week 12, and the rookie quarterback expects to be close to full speed as he continues his recovery from a knee sprain. Dallas - with running back DeMarco Murray restored to the line-up - should be far more balanced on offense than they were in the first meeting. But I'm still not sure they'll be able to keep up with RG3 and his fellow rookie Alfred Morris.

Redskins to win

And the rest

Here are the rest of this week's games. These are not included in the Pick Six, but feel free to post your picks for these as well. If you do so then please keep them separate from your Pick Six predictions, as it will make life a lot easier when tallying up your scores.

Sunday

1pm ET/6pm GMT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
St Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos