Twenty years ago, only three quarterbacks in their first or second seasons were starting in the NFL. Ten years later, in 2002, that number had grown to five, and this year it's a whopping 10, half of them rookies.
All of which leads to an obvious question: Is this the new normal?
"I don't know if there will be four or five every year," former Dallas Cowboys player personnel director Gil Brandt said, "but I do think we'll be seeing this more and more because of the fact these young kids are growing up throwing the football as much as they are."
Rules favoring the passing game — both Drew Brees and Tom Brady last year broke Dan Marino's 27-year-old record for passing yards in a season — have every team scouring the college ranks for the next big thing. Brandt said they should look even further — to the Texas high school ranks, where 7-on-7 tournaments have been a staple for years.
"In 1998 there were four former Texas high school quarterbacks in the NFL, and none were starters," he said. "Now there are 17, and eight are starters. I attribute the turnaround to Marcus High School winning the 1998 state championship using a spread passing attack. Now probably 80 percent of the schools in the state use some sort of spread."
Three of the five rookies starting this year — Andrew Luck (Houston), Robert Griffin III (Copperas Cove) and the Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill (Big Spring) — played their high school ball in Texas.
If Tannehill recovers from his left quadriceps and knee injury, he will face Luck on Sunday in Indianapolis. Both have led their teams to 4-3 records, although Tannehill was hurt early in Sunday's 30-9 rout of the New York Jets.
Tannehill was coached at Texas A&M by Mike Sherman, now the Dolphins' offensive coordinator. NFL Network analyst and former Washington Redskins quarterback Joe Theismann said that having a coach steeped in the pro game was a big factor in Tannehill being NFL-ready this summer.
"Andrew Luck played under (former NFL quarterback) Jim Harbaugh at Stanford, and Andy Dalton of Cincinnati ran a traditional pro-style offense at TCU," Theismann noted.
"Ryan has probably benefited the most of the young guys … All these nuances that it's always taken young guys like Aaron Rodgers two or three years to learn, he's able to process right away because he's been in the same system."
Dolphins backup Matt Moore — who will start Sunday if Tannehill is not ready — said it's no surprise that high school quarterbacks often choose their college based on how much pro-style offense it runs.
"As an aspiring NFL quarterback, you want to go to a team that throws from the pocket, runs play-action, things like that, because that's how it is in the NFL," Moore said.
For schools such as Nebraska, Oklahoma and much of the Big Ten this is a relatively recent development. Throughout the 1980s and early '90s, Sooners and Cornhuskers squads representing the Big Eight in the Orange Bowl Classic showed up with triple-option and wishbone attacks capable of running 400 yards in a game. But the careers of quarterbacks such as J.C. Watts and Tommie Frazier would end there.
And now? "Two years ago (Oklahoma quarterback) Landry Jones threw 617 passes," Brandt said. "On four occasions he's thrown more passes in one game than some of the old OU quarterbacks threw in a season."
CBS Sports analyst and former San Diego Chargers quarterback Dan Fouts said economics have become a driving force in the rush to identify the next up-and-comer.
"The social pressure to win now is so great, and there are so many avenues for people to express their opinions, that the patience we used to have to let a young guy develop is gone," he said.
"I'm not sure this group (of quarterbacks) is that much better than the one 20 years ago. I'll give you that in some ways they're more athletic, but whether any of them is going to turn into the next Peyton Manning, I don't know."
Theismann sees them getting every opportunity to do so. He said that while teams used to put a young quarterback on the bench to learn the system, they now incorporate concepts from the young quarterback's college system into their own. The Dolphins have done that with Tannehill and the Redskins with Griffin.
"When you watch Robert Griffin III you're impressed," Theismann said. "But you need to know that one-third of the offense he's running came straight out of his college playbook."
Sherman appreciates the abundance of young quarterbacks who are starting but thinks this season is an anomaly. "I don't know if you'll see it again to this degree," he said.
Theismann and Fouts are equally cautious about assuming stardom for almost any newcomer. Theismann pointed to Cam Newton —- last season he was the first rookie to pass for 4,000 yards but this season he looks lost and Carolina is 1-6.
"Now coaches have a book on him and are coming up with ways to stop him," Theismann said.
Dolphins coaches this week will be looking at each of the 288 passes thrown this season by Luck, who is 10th in the NFL in passing yards (1,971) but has thrown an equal number of touchdowns (8) and interceptions.
"With rookies it's difficult — the more teams see you on tape the more they game plan for you," Fouts said. "And a lot of these guys are starting on teams that needed a quarterback, which means the team wasn't very good. It's going to be a struggle for a lot of them."
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