Friday, September 6, 2013

NFL Week 1 picks: Broncos, Ravens set for epic rematch, 49ers dial up Packers ... - SportingNews.com

What's new is old again in 2013, or something like that. We'll roll with that as the theme for your Week 1 NFL picks, as the weekend is a throwback to last January 12.

It will feel like the second time (or the second overtime) for the Super Bowl champion Ravens, who are back in Denver in a rematch of their epic divisional playoff game. The NFC champion 49ers, meanwhile, will try to get the Packers' number again (see 444 total yards from Colin Kaepernick) in San Francisco.

MORE: AFC predictions | NFC predictions | SN's Super Bowl picks| Awards predictions

While the champs are on the marquee, there's a darn good undercard, as the NFC East helps close out the kickoff schedule in prime time. From Manning to Manning and beyond, it's a reminder that this year sets up to be bigger than the last:

Game of Midweek

Baltimore at Denver (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC). The Broncos (or their fans) didn't need super-sized banners of Joe Flacco reminding them of what happened in the playoffs. The 70-yard miracle TD pass from Flacco to Jacoby Jones will linger for a while, no matter what happens here. Denver also brings in some pass-defense woes with both Von Miller and Champ Bailey out.

The Ravens, however, don't quite have the same firepower without Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, and as good as their own overhauled defense can be, the Broncos further loaded their offense with Wes Welker. Peyton Manning will stretch the field in every which way, and Flacco won't have his way deep again. Broncos 31, Ravens 24.

STEELE: Time running out for Manning, Broncos

IYER: Week 1 Huddle Up! Podcast

Game of the Week

Green Bay at San Francisco (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX). The Packers have stayed up all offseason trying to figure out how to slow down Kaepernick and the zone read. Easier said than done, as Green Bay needs its front seven to be able to handle the league's best offensive line and a dangerous intermediate passing game at the same time.

The 49ers aren't a good matchup up front defensively, either. They can make it a rough debut for Packers' rookie back Eddie Lacy. That will force Aaron Rodgers into old pass-happy mode, ready for Aldon Smith and friends to tee off a bit. The athletic tight ends, Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley are key, and the Niners are better suited to cover those types. 49ers 27, Packers 24.

Rivalry of the Week

New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC). Nothing says Week 1 (or Week 17) quite like Big Blue vs. Big D. There's no real home-field advantage in the series; it?s quite the opposite. Eli Manning loves playing in Jerry World, but Jerry Jones gave Tony Romo megabucks with the intent of ending that dominance.

With Romo and Dez Bryant, the Cowboys came oh-so close to holding serve a year ago, and expect them to attack the Giants' injury riddled secondary. With a banged-up pass rush, Romo will be able to deliver some big pass plays. Manning is used to answering, especially in the fourth quarter, but Dallas' new 4-3 defense will limit the damage to earn its first silver star. Cowboys 27, Giants 24.

Shootout of the Week

Atlanta at New Orleans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX). Sean Payton is back, and defensive coordinators are going to be in trouble. Sure, the Saints still had Drew Brees without their coach last season, but Payton both raises the creative big-play quotient and never forgets about the power running game. That's all good, but after the Big Easy that was their pass defense last season, it's just as shaky with Rob Ryan at the helm.

The Falcons have worked to match the Saints with playmakers, and now have one more: running back Steven Jackson. These teams will trade blows and points right from the gun, and won't let up. Matt Ryan and Mike Smith helped Atlanta roost while Payton was gone, and will make sure not to give up early control of the division. Falcons 34, Saints 31.

Upset of the Week

Cincinnati over Chicago (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). OK, if we believe in the Bengals as division favorites and true AFC contenders, this is exactly the kind of game we should expect them to win. Sure, the Bears are excited about their version of the West Coast under Marc Trestman, but Cincy also upgraded its offense. The Bengals also should control the action up front and get after Jay Cutler. Here's their chance to gain respect in a tough road environment to start a difficult early stretch. Bengals 20, Bears 19.

Lock of the Week

Indianapolis over Oakland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Raiders should be inspired by the Colts, knowing how quickly having the first overall pick led to a turnaround in Indy. Of course, it required a little luck to land Andrew Luck, but Oakland won't really need to do much to secure a shot at a franchise quarterback at the top of the 2014 draft (see Teddy Bridgewater). As for Luck in Year 2, it starts with a bang with Terrelle Pryor unable to run or pass enough to catch up. Colts 24, Raiders 10.

LINEMAKERS: Super Bowl odds| FANTASY:Experts' QB picks for Week 1

Rest of the Week

Cleveland at Miami (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). You might remember Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill. They were those "other" first-round quarterbacks taken last year. Weeden is older and bit more refined, while Tannehill remains a bit raw and still developing. The Browns' signal-caller, thanks to Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, is ahead, and it helps Weeden can fall back on handing off often to the uber talented Trent Richardson. Browns 23, Dolphins 17.

Kansas City at Jacksonville (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). Andy Reid and Alex Smith were brought to bring stability to the Chiefs' offense. They already had the feats of agility with Jamaal Charles. The Jaguars are better than you think with their cogs for Blaine Gabbert, even without Justin Blackmon. Reid, however, inherited a more ready-to-win veteran team than Gus Bradley. Chiefs 24, Jaguars 14.

Minnesota at Detroit (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX). Here comes Adrian Peterson on even better knees, and he plowed through the Lions for 273 rushing yards a season ago. Detroit will support its fine front four and focus on slowing him down. That puts Christian Ponder in position, albeit with better receivers, of needing to win a high-scorer on the road. Matt Stafford will earn that big contract with a big opening game that will give the Lions hope for a bounceback. Lions 27, Vikings 24.

New England at Buffalo (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Patriots have lived dangerously against the Bills of late, falling into big early holes only to let their offense take over in the second half. They can't afford to do that here, as rookie QB EJ Manuel will provide some thrills, along with C.J. Spiller. While the focus is on the new faces to whom Tom Brady is throwing, there's nothing new with New England's running. Ball control and defense are back as Bill Belichick staples. Patriots 30, Bills 20.

Seattle at Carolina (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX). It's a homecoming of sorts for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who still has many area fans from his days at NC State. There are many more Cam Newton fans in Charlotte, but at this point, he's a little behind his Seattle counterpart as a complete player. Newton also is facing a defense that backs its pass rush with the league's best secondary. Wilson will see Marshawn Lynch and the running game do a whole lot of smashing in the second half. Seahawks 24, Panthers 13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX). You may have heard that Darrelle Revis plays for the Bucs now, and the Jets are rolling with rookie Geno Smith over hurting Mark Sanchez. That's a good formula for revenge interceptions, which will come after Tampa shuts down an anemic running game and forces Smith into mistakes. Even though the Bucs' D will set up the win, it's important for Sanchez's fellow 2009 first-rounder Josh Freeman to avoid his own mistakes. Buccaneers 16, Jets 13.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS). Both teams came into the season wanting to run the ball better, and the Titans have the edge there with a stronger line and a healthy Chris Johnson. Tennessee;s intent to run often and well, however, is a poor approach against the Steelers' front. Big Ben can expect to take a lot of licks starting here, but he's used to it by now and can bail them out with a few big pass plays that Jake Locker won't be able to match. Steelers 30, Titans 14.

Arizona at St. Louis (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX). The Cardinals once again field a legitimate passer in Carson Palmer, while the Rams hope they have given Sam Bradford enough legitimate receivers. These "other" NFC West teams also play some nasty defense, and will be hungry for turnovers against transitional, run-challenged teams. Half pretty, half ugly plays into the hands of Jeff Fisher at home. Rams 20, Cardinals 17.

Philadelphia at Washington (Monday, 6:55 p.m. ET, ESPN). Sure, Chip Kelly has some fun in store with Michael Vick leading his offense, but that's so last season. In case you missed it, Mike Shanahan already did a lot of that with Robert Griffin III mixing a hard-to-read running game with big shots downfield. There just isn't enough faith in Kelly's defense, which will be a liability all season. RG3 gets broken in well (again), and the hosts will win running away with Alfred Morris. Redskins 34, Eagles 21.

Houston at San Diego (Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN). J.J. Watt is set to continue his sacking, pass-swatting dominance here against the Chargers' shaky offensive line and struggling sidewinder, Philip Rivers. It won't be easy for the Texans to run, but Matt Schaub, Rivers' fellow 2004 draftmate, has much more help to be a steady passer. This will turn into a pretty nice return for Wade Phillips. Texans 23, Chargers 13.

Stats of the Week

Last season's record: 185-83-1
Last season's locks record: 16-3
Last season's upsets record: 13-6

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