ARIZONA AT GREEN BAY
LINE: Green Bay 11
Green Bay couldn't cover last week's 14-point spread against Jacksonville. Given all their injuries, and despite how bad Arizona looked at home last week or their four straight losses after four straight wins, I'm not convinced the Packers can cover this line either.
Jacksonville did everything they could to give Green Bay the game with nine dropped passes, a blocked punt and a fumble in the end zone.
All that and Jacksonville still held the Packers to a season-low 238 yards on offense – largely because the Packers have yet to reveal a running game.
While Arizona's offensive line is limping which should auger well for Packers' Clay Matthews, Green Bay is 1-9 as favourites of 11 points or more coming off a victory when playing a team coming off a straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) loss.
The Packers have a lot of injuries – they played without eight starters last weekend – and it showed. Just how many of those players return for this game needs to be monitored as they have 13 players listed on the injury report including Aaron Rodgers' top two receivers Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings as well as Charles Woodson and B.J. Raji.
Not, of course, that Arizona, which ranks 31st in total offence and 29th in scoring, doesn't have problems of their own.
Arizona, which has only allowed 14 TDs this year, has injury troubles of their own, have allowed 39 sacks – nine more than any other team – and have no running game – last week they rushed for a total, repeat total, seven yards.
The absence of a running game has allowed defenses to pin their ears and get after opposing QBs while dropping their safeties deep and forcing check down passes.
Nonetheless, taking Arizona and the points.
DALLAS AT ATLANTA
LINE: Atlanta 4
For some reason I'm still not convinced by the undefeated Falcons, who stayed unbeaten after scoring on their first six possessions against Philadelphia.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, exit a game when they all but handed the Giants the win with all their turnovers.
Dallas had 415 passing yards and 28 first downs (compared to just 11 for the Giants) and still found a way to lose after trailing 23-0 at one point after Tony Romo and Co. combined for two fumbles and four interceptions.
Turnovers have been the story for both teams. While the Cowboys rank ahead of Atlanta in total offence and total defense, Dallas is minus 11 in turnovers while Atlanta is plus 10.
The biggest culprit for the Cowboys has been QB Tony Romo who now has 13 interceptions on the season.
The stats are one-sided in Dallas' favour.
The Cowboys are 7-1 vs. NFC South; Atlanta is 2-10 at home off consecutive wins against non-divisional teams with revenge and 0-10 at home off consecutive wins vs. teams with a losing record.
Cowboy RB DeMarco Murray could return to the line-up after missing the last two games with a sprained right foot.
Taking Dallas and the points.
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND
LINE: Ravens 4
Cleveland should find another division to play in. They are 15-48 SU in the AFC North. Before they defeated Cincinnat in Week 6, the Bengals had lost 12 straight division games.
The Ravens, however, love the AFC North having won 10 straight against divisional rivals. They have also won nine in a row against Cleveland.
But there is something amiss –maybe it's just all their injuries – about Baltimore's defense. Usually one of the NFL leaders against stopping the run, the Ravens rank 30th this season.
In their last three games, teams have gained 622 rushing yards against Baltimore which likely means a heavy dose of running by Cleveland rookie Trent Richardson.
It's hard to get a good read of Baltimore which come off a 43-13 loss to Houston when the Ravens showed nothing – 176 yards of offence compared with 420 for Houston and 22 minutes of possession compared to 38 for Houston.
That was after winning their previous four games – albeit by a total of just 13 points.
Ravens defeated Cleveland as 13-point chalk 23-16 in Week 4 in a game where the stats were pretty much even and which was pretty much decided when the Browns were driving for the lead in the third quarter when rookie QB Brandon Weeden hung a pass and was intercepted by Cary Williams, who returned it 63 yards for a TD.
Now, largely because of injuries, the exit of that one-sided loss to Houston and their 1-3 road record the Ravens are only 4 point favourites.
Ravens come off a bye and they are 9-1 against the spread in that role.
Ravens are also 5-1 off a double digit straight up loss while Cleveland is 0-8 after scoring 10 points or less when playing a team that comes off a SUATS loss. Browns are also 0-7 as home dogs of three points or more vs. teams coming off a road game.
And, Baltimore have won and covered the last four games in Cleveland.
For some reason RB Ray Rice's workload keeps decreasing. Given that Cleveland can't stop the run (neither, lately can the Ravens) Baltimore needs to get Rice back in the picture.
Taking Baltimore minus the points.
BUFFALO AT HOUSTON
Line: Houston 10 ½
Buffalo's total inability to stop the run will mean carry after carry by Arian Foster. In Houston's six wins Foster has 630 yards on 151 carries. In Houston's lone loss – to Green Bay – Foster ran for just 29 yards on 17 carries.
Last week Chris Johnson, who had previously shown very little, ran for 195 yards and two scores against Buffalo's high-priced but low efficiency defense which has allowed an NFL-worst 1,238 rushing yards – including 937 in just their last four games.
Posting a good 16-8 record in games following a bye week since 1990, the Bills have been hampered the last several weeks with the absence of RG Kraig Urbik and LT Cordy Glenn and then in their last game lost G Chad Rinehart. Starting RT Erik Pears is also questionable.
But Urbik will almost certainly return and there is a pretty good chance Glenn will be back as well.
As for the Bills defense, Mario Williams – a former Houston Texan – had a surgical procedure done during the bye week and said his wrist now feels a lot better.
Mixed stats on this game show Buffalo 7-1 away with revenge after allowing 35-plus points and 4-0 after a bye while Houston is 4-1 at home off a double-digit ATS win when meeting teams with a losing record.
Both teams will be focused on running the ball and if that's the case this will be a low scoring game with the 10 ½ points looming large.
Taking Buffalo and the points.
CAROLINA AT WASHINGTON
LINE: Washington 3
The last two Heisman Trophy winners – Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III – meet.
Carolina has only one win on the season but they have been competitive in just about every game this year – the 36-7 loss to the Giants in Week 3 notwithstanding.
The last four weeks in a row the Panthers have actually held the lead in the fourth quarter. They have blown every one of them losing by a combined 12 points.
Washington has also been in just about every game this season with the exception of last week's 27-12 loss to Pittsburgh.
Washington needs to run to be effective; Carolina is tepid against the run. Carolina needs to get well through the air against Washington's depleted secondary which ranks last in the NFL against the pass.
Stats are mixed. Carolina is 0-6 as dogs of 10 or less facing an opponent with revenge; Washington is 1-6 as a home favourite.
Taking Washington minus the points.
CHICAGO AT TENNESSEE
LINE: Bears 3 ½
The Chicago Bears give up too many sacks. Their offense certainly isn't much – especially their pass game outside of the Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall duo. And yet they are 5-1 and in first place in the NFC North.
Go figure.
I often think the Bears are doing it with mirrors. But if so those mirrors are being carried by their defense.
Although they only meet once every four years, Tennessee has covered six of the last eight games against the Bears.
But Tennessee has numerous injuries on their offensive line.
To win, Tennessee needs to put the pressure on Chicago Cutler, who has been sacked 11 times in the last two games. Last week, Cutler only had 80 passing yards after three-quarters but then hit 12 of his last 14 passes for 106 yards after another Carolina collapse.
Taking the Titans and the points.
DENVER AT CINCINNATI
LINE: Broncos 4
Peyton Manning has never lost to the Bengals. There's no reason it should start here.
Prior to last week's bye, the Bengals lost their last game 24-17 to Pittsburgh but the game was nowhere as close as the scoreboard indicated. The Bengals had only 185 yards of offense compared with 431 for the Steelers. Pittsburgh also had the ball 15 minutes more than the Bengals.
Meanwhile Denver comes off an easy 34-14 win over New Orleans when they put up a season high 530 yards of offence behind Manning who has passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last four games.
Mixed stats at play.
Taking the Broncos.
DETROIT AT JACKSONVILLE
LINE: Lions 3 ½
No home advantage here. The Jaguars 0-3 at home this season losing those games by a combined score of 95-20.
Without RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars were supposed to roll over and die against the Packers, who were favoured by some 15 points.
Instead, Jacksonville had a chance to post the upset but in the end did themselves in with dropped passes, a blocked punt that resulted in a touchdown and a fumble in the end zone.
In place of Jones-Drew, the Jaguars got pretty good efforts from Rashad Jennings, who finished with 115 yards and Cecil Shorts, who had 116 yards on eight catches.
The game matches Detroit's No. 2 passing game against the Jaguars 23rd pass defense and the Lions are may have found a star in Titus Young, who replaced injured Nate Burleson. With Calvin Johnson getting double teamed, Young caught nine passes for 100 yards and two TDs.
But there are two telling stats: Detroit is 2-17 away vs. non-divisional teams coming off consecutive losses; Jacksonville is 6-1 as non-divisional home dogs vs. opponents with revenge.
Reluctantly, taking Jacksonville and the points.
MIAMI AT INDIANAPOLIS
LINE: Dolphins 3
The status of Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is still questionable which makes this game almost unplayable until post time.
If he's playing I'd take Miami. If he isn't I'd go with the Colts even if Tannehill's replacement last week, Matt Moore, was OK finishing 11 of 19 for 131 yards.
Nine of the last 11 games between the two have been decided by a TD or less.
The Colts, who will once again probably go to screen passes and play action, have several good trends in their favour. They are 7-0 off consecutive wins vs. teams that also come off consecutive wins. Colts are 9-1 off a SU ATS divisional road win and they are 12-2 as dogs of 8 points or less when facing an opponent that comes off a win of 14 or more points.
Miami is 5-2 away vs. the AFC South.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SEATTLE
LINE: Seattle 4
Looks like a battle of running backs: Vikings Adrian Peterson against Seattle's Marshawn Lynch.
Last week Minnesota allowed 159 yards rushing to Tampa; the previous week they allowed 122 rushing yards against Arizona.
Whether Seattle's defense is 5 points better is the question.
Minnesota, who will be without their best cover man Chris Cook, has conflicting trends. They are 6-0 as dogs of 3 or more after allowing 35 or more points in their previous game but they are also 1-13 as road dogs vs. a conference opponent that is coming off a SUATS loss.
Seattle, which have WR injuries, is 8-0 as a favourite off consecutive losses. They are also at home where they are 3-0 this year with wins over Dallas, New England and Green Bay.
Taking Seattle.
PITTSBURGH AT NEW YORK GIANTS
LINE: Giants 3
Pittsburgh keeps picking up injuries but they continue to win.
When starting RB Rashard Mendenhall and his backup Isaac Redman were injured they quickly discovered that Jonathan Dwyer, a rookie out of Georgia Tech, was more than capable of stepping in. Dwyer has run for 229 yards the last two weeks while averaging over 5 yards a carry.
Mendenhall could return this week so it will be interesting to see what happens to Dwyer.
This looks like a flip a coin game but one that should be most entertaining.
Taking the Giants.
TAMPA BAY AT OAKLAND
LINE: Raiders 1 ½
Tampa's offense has come unleashed since their bye week three weeks ago. Oakland also seems to have benefitted by their bye week – also three weeks ago. Since then, Oakland has won twice and lost a 23-20 game to undefeated Atlanta.
With All-Pro G Carl Nicks on injured reserve the Bucs are now with just two of their five starting linemen.
RB Doug Martin, a rookie out of Boise State, has been a real find for Tampa. Last week he had 214 offensive yards and a pair of touchdowns against Minnesota.
Oakland is 2-1 at home and their only home loss was in Week 1 when they had two aborted punts and one blocked punt after an injury to long snapper Jon Condo.
The Raiders edge would seem to their 10th ranked pass game against Tampa's 31st ranked pass defense but I like what I've been seeing from Tampa.
Taking the Bucs.
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS
LINE: Saints 3
Two desperate teams meet.
Both teams looked miserable last week with the Eagles ending coach Andy Reid's 13-0 record after a bye week and leading one to ask are the Falcons that good or are the Eagles that bad.
Saints, which had won their previous two games were smacked by Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
It's hard to believe just how bad the Saints defense is but it was on full display last week as they became the first team in at least 60 years to allow 400-plus yards in seven straight games according to STATS LLC.
Eagles would seem to have a lot of talent that is playing well below their potential. Or, again, maybe Michael Vick and Co. have been overrated all year.
Vick certainly wasn't the problem against the Falcons. It was their defense which allowed the Falcons to score on their first six possessions including touchdowns on their first three drives.
Both teams have good stats. For instance the Eagles are 8-0 away with revenge against a conference opponent, 7-0 as road dogs after a SU loss when facing a team with a losing record and 12-1 with revenge against a team coming off a double-digit loss.
The Saints, meanwhile, are 12-3 as favourites or dogs of 3 points or less and 9-3 after an SUATS loss when facing an opponent coming off a loss of their own.
Taking the Eagles and the field goal.
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