From the moment coach Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco in 2011, the 49ers have been one of the NFL's best teams.
In Harbaugh's first two seasons, the 49ers ranked third in combined wins (24) and points differential (275), trailing only the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers in both categories. In those two seasons, San Francisco allowed 502 points, easily the fewest in the league.
Even after losing in the Super Bowl in February, Harbaugh's 49ers seemed poised to become the next dynasty. But after defeating the Packers in Week 1, San Francisco has been outscored, 56-10, in the last two weeks.
In Seattle, the 49ers were three-point underdogs, and lost, 29-3. At home against the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco was a 101/2-point favourite, and lost by 20.
For the season, San Francisco has fallen short of expectations – defined as the point spread in the game – by an average of 17.5 points a game (only the New York Giants, at 18.3, have been more disappointing). How have teams with similar expectations and results fared over the course of the rest of the season?
From 1990 to 2012, 14 teams have met three criteria: won at least 10 games in the previous year; on average, were favoured to win the first three games of the next season; and failed to cover the spread by, on average, at least 10 points. On average, those teams won 121/2 games the previous season but just eight in the season in question, an indication the slow start is a sign of mediocre things to come.
There might be more hope for a turnaround if San Francisco's struggles were contained: Unfortunately for 49ers fans, the team has struggled in every aspect of the game. The biggest surprise has been the fall of a dominant rush defence.
Two years ago, the 49ers did not allow a rushing touchdown until the 15th game of the season; last year, three of the team's four linebackers (Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) were named first-team all-pro by the Associated Press, as the run defence finished in the top five in rushing yards, yards per carry and touchdowns allowed.
Willis, perhaps the game's best inside linebacker, was injured against Indianapolis and may not be back for the 49ers' Thursday matchup with the Rams. Michael Wilhoite struggled to replace Willis in the second half, but any backup linebacker would represent a huge downgrade from Willis, a five-time all-pro.
Another concern is Smith, who is on indefinite leave after an arrest on charges of driving under the influence. The 49ers are left with two all-pro members in the front seven with Bowman and defensive end Justin Smith, who have played well below their lofty standards. The front seven, long a strength of the team, bear much of the blame for the team's two losses, the first back-to-back losses under Harbaugh.
The pass defence has been better only by comparison. In 2012, Chris Culliver was possibly the team's best cornerback, but a torn anterior cruciate ligament in training camp ended his 2013 season. Nnamdi Asomugha, a corner who played for the Philadelphia Eagles and Oakland Raiders, was signed in the off-season, but he has played poorly.
Opponents have not passed much on San Francisco – the 49ers have faced the fewest pass attempts in the league – but when they have, they have been successful, posting an 87.4 passer rating.
At safety, first-round pick Eric Reid has struggled to replace Dashon Goldson (now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and missed three tackles against the Colts. Even in the team's victory, the defence allowed four touchdowns, and San Francisco has allowed an average of 29.1 points a game over its last nine games, including the playoffs, going back to last season.
Still, the big names are there on defence, and Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner give the team an above-average secondary. The talented front seven should revert to form, which means the more serious concern might be on offence.
San Francisco running backs have rushed for just 176 yards on 53 carries this season, a 3.3-yard average. The trademark of the Harbaugh offence has been a punishing ground game, but for the most part, opponents have been able to shut it down. One notable exception was the team's lone touchdown drive in the last two weeks, as San Francisco had five runs of at least 10 yards as part of a 91-yard march. But generally, the weak running game has put even more pressure on quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
After a sensational half-season as a starter in 2012, Kaepernick is finding defences much more challenging. It is easy to forget he has thrown just 397 passes in his career, including the playoffs. He may have helped lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but Kaepernick still has a lot of room to grow as a passer.
The more worrisome issue for San Francisco is the lack of viable targets in the passing game. One could consider the addition of Anquan Boldin, who was acquired in March, and the loss of Michael Crabtree, who is out with a torn Achilles tendon, as a wash, but the team has precious few threats behind Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis. And with Davis out last Sunday because of a hamstring injury, the 49ers' absence of depth at receiver was on full display.
It is too early to write off the 49ers, but it is too late to think the team's struggles are just a slow start. The Seahawks already have a two-game lead in the division and look to be the better team: If the 49ers lose in St. Louis on Thursday capturing the NFC West might soon be out of reach.
The bright side for San Francisco is that by the end of the year, Willis and Davis should be back from their injuries, and Crabtree and Smith could also be back. At full strength, the 49ers remain as talented as any team in the NFL, but San Francisco is not operating at anything close to that level now.
New York Times News Service
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