With a game against the rejuvenated Washington Redskins on tap in Week 13, the Giants' Sunday night matchup with the Green Bay Packers was quietly a huge game. A loss would have sent them reeling to 6-5 — just a game ahead of the Redskins and Dallas Cowboys in the division. Instead, the Giants dominated the Packers, maintaining a two-game lead in the division.
According to Advanced NFL Stats' Win Probability graph, Green Bay never had greater than a 17 percent chance of winning the game by the end of the first quarter. By that time, the Giants had built a 17-7 lead on the back of Andre Brown and Rueben Randle touchdowns. The first score was set up by a magnificently designed and executed screen to running back Ahmad Bradshaw.
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Just over a minute into the game, the Giants faced a second-and-10 at their 39-yard line. With base "21" personnel — two running backs, one tight end and two receivers — the Giants lined up in Twins Right Weak Right with receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks to the field and fullback Henry Hynoski aligned away from tight end Martellus Bennett. Cruz went in short motion before the snap, ending up near the hashes by the time quarterback Eli Manning snapped the ball.
Following the snap, Manning showed play-action by faking a handoff to Bradshaw. Cruz continued behind the line of scrimmage on his "ghost" motion, i.e. a fake end-around, and as Manning feigned the handoff to the receiver, Bradshaw began to trickle out of the backfield for a screen.
The call was an interesting one on second-and-10 from the offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride because it suggested he may have suspected a blitz. He was right. The Packers called a zone double-barrel blitz, crossing the inside linebackers on their way to Manning.
The design of the defense was to trick Manning into thinking more defenders were rushing than was actually the case; with five defenders on the line-of-scrimmage in the Packers' base 3-4 look, the defensive coordinator Dom Capers wanted Manning to see the blitzing inside linebackers and think he had man-coverage. With outside linebackers Erik Walden and Dezman Moses dropping into coverage, however, the Packers were able to play a soft zone because only five defenders were actually rushing.
Zone blitz or not, the Giants ran the screen pass to perfection. Although it wasn't an all-out blitz, the Packers' five-man rush got them out of position just enough for Bradshaw to take the pass 59 yards to the Green Bay 2-yard line. Walden and safety Morgan Burnett — circled below — still had opportunities to make a play on Bradshaw short of the first down, but the outside linebacker missed a tackle and Burnett couldn't get off a block.
It might seem trivial in a game that ended with a final score of 38-10, but the screen pass to Bradshaw set the tone for the Giants for the rest of the night. The play increased the Giants' win probability from 55 percent to 67 percent in the blink of an eye, allowing them to avoid playing from behind. Now sitting at 7-4, the Giants appear primed to win the N.F.C. East and make another run in late January.
Jonathan Bales is the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft. He also runs the "Running the Numbers" blog at DallasCowboys.com and writes for NBC, Pro Football Focus, and RotoWire.
You can follow him on Twitter @TheCowboysTimes
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